Analysis shows 10 Million Google Plus Users Could Double by this Weekend
>By James Lenhart
Google is staying quiet about the number of current G+ users, but that doesn’t stop other people from conducting their own research. Paul Allen, Founder of Ancestry.com has taken it upon himself to do a “surname-based analysis” that he claims will “accurately estimate” the number of users on G+.
By comparing a sample of 100-200 surnames to US Census Bureau data — he is able to estimate the total percentage of people that have signed up for G+ in the U.S. Essentially, he is comparing the last names of users in Google Plus to the last names in the US Census data he acquired.
Allen says he’s aware that his calculations may not be perfect, and says that if he had the resources to obtain more information — he could develop a better model. One weakness in the current model is his ratio of US users compared to non-US users. Currently, it is 1:2.12 and has not been updated since July 4th. We all know that Google opened up the ability to invite again, so this could be off by quite a lot.
Paul says that on July 4th his user estimates showed 1.7 million. On July 10th he updated and said there had been a 350% increase of users — making the new estimate 7.3 million.
The latest number is estimated to be 10 million users (as of Monday) and is projected to double that by the weekend. I’d love to see how close these estimates are once Google releases some real numbers.
Personally, I’d love to see what type of of trends are developing from users who have a Facebook, Twitter, and a G+ account. Are there more users who just use Twitter, or are we seeing Facebook users enjoying G+? Also, how many are using the mobile apps? I’m sure that all of these questions will be answered soon enough.
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